Visual Market Intelligence: September Rate & Equipment Trends
Across the Transport Pro TMS network, spot rates across five of the six monitored trailer configurations advanced sequentially. The sharpest escalations materialized in temperature-controlled equipment and heavy-haul Removable Gooseneck (RGN) units.
Transactional Spot Rate Movements (MoM & YoY)
September confirmed that August's minor rate softening was purely transitory. The table below outlines exact rate shifts across all equipment categories tracked in our system:
| Equipment Type | Aug '26 ($/mi) | Sep '26 ($/mi) | MoM Change | Sep '25 ($/mi) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Removable Gooseneck (RGN) | $5.11 | $5.73 | +12.1% | $4.61 | +24.3% |
| Step Deck | $4.50 | $4.57 | +1.6% | $2.59 | +76.4% |
| Flatbed (Standard Deck) | $3.81 | $3.86 | +1.3% | $2.68 | +44.0% |
| Refrigerated (Reefer) | $3.47 | $3.73 | +7.5% | $2.54 | +46.9% |
| Dry Van | $3.07 | $3.20 | +4.2% | $2.27 | +41.0% |
| Conestoga | $3.71 | $3.62 | -2.4% | $2.61 | +38.7% |
Money-losing loads rose to 7.2% of total transactions across our brokerage network in September. Reefer shipments took the heaviest beating, with 9.2% of loads moving at an operational loss as sudden diesel spikes outpaced locked-in shipper billing formulas.
Brokerage Margins: Equipment-by-Equipment Breakdown
Freight brokerages experienced renewed margin compression in September. Because freight intermediaries operate between locked customer tariffs and daily carrier buy-rates, double-digit linehaul acceleration squeezed asset-light operations.
| Mode | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Van | 12.7% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 14.3% |
| Reefer | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 11.5% |
| Flatbed | 17.3% | 15.9% | 15.9% | 15.6% | 15.3% | 16.6% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| Step Deck | 14.8% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 15.6% |
| RGN | 19.5% | 20.0% | 19.7% | 17.9% | 14.8% | 21.1% | 20.2% | 17.9% | 19.4% |
| Conestoga | 15.3% | 15.8% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 17.4% | 19.7% | 22.7% | 17.5% |
Cross-Border Shipments: Mexico Activity & Regulatory Headwinds
Cross-border volumes between the United States and Mexico remained elevated through September. Although total monthly loads dipped 4.1% sequentially from August (from 896 to 859 shipments), volume remained well above the 2026 year-to-date monthly benchmark of 798 loads (+10.1% above 2025 averages).
| Period | 2025 Shipments | 2025 MoM Change | 2026 Shipments | 2026 MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 566 | — | 356 | -59.1% |
| February | 552 | -2.5% | 1,175 | +230.1% |
| March | 700 | +26.8% | 676 | -42.5% |
| April | 953 | +36.1% | 454 | -32.8% |
| May | 511 | -46.4% | 768 | +69.2% |
| June | 803 | +57.1% | 641 | -16.5% |
| July | 733 | -8.7% | 1,353 | +111.1% |
| August | 506 | -31.0% | 896 | -33.8% |
| September | 580 | +14.6% | 859 | -4.1% |
| Monthly Avg | 725 (Full Year) | — | 798 (YTD) | +10.1% |
Bilateral commerce set an all-time monthly high of $94.8 billion, with the Port of Laredo maintaining its ranking as the nation's premier international port. However, intense US enforcement of cabotage statutes and rigorous reviews of roughly 194,000 non-domiciled Commercial Driver's Licenses created capacity bottlenecks at Nogales and Mexicali, elevating northbound spot cross-border rates.
Historical Quarterly Benchmark Matrix (2023 - Q3 2026)
A multi-year evaluation of quarterly averages shows that truckload spot rates have moved significantly above the historical cyclical floor established during 2023 and 2024.
| Quarter | RGN ($/mi) | Step Deck ($/mi) | Flatbed ($/mi) | Reefer ($/mi) | Dry Van ($/mi) | Conestoga ($/mi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '23 | $4.39 | $3.13 | $2.78 | $2.67 | $2.32 | $3.49 |
| Q2 '23 | $4.83 | $3.60 | $2.73 | $2.41 | $2.09 | $3.22 |
| Q3 '23 | $4.83 | $3.10 | $2.69 | $2.50 | $2.14 | $2.87 |
| Q4 '23 | $4.50 | $2.58 | $2.61 | $2.49 | $2.25 | $2.68 |
| Q1 '24 | $4.09 | $2.60 | $2.61 | $2.45 | $2.15 | $2.64 |
| Q2 '24 | $4.44 | $2.79 | $2.78 | $2.44 | $2.21 | $2.64 |
| Q3 '24 | $4.27 | $2.58 | $2.69 | $2.49 | $2.23 | $3.05 |
| Q4 '24 | $4.07 | $2.61 | $2.67 | $2.49 | $2.29 | $3.24 |
| Q1 '25 | $4.57 | $2.59 | $2.74 | $2.48 | $2.26 | $3.21 |
| Q2 '25 | $4.16 | $2.63 | $2.76 | $2.43 | $2.25 | $2.87 |
| Q3 '25 | $4.43 | $2.61 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.29 | $2.64 |
| Q4 '25 | $4.43 | $2.63 | $2.79 | $2.70 | $2.38 | $2.78 |
| Q1 '26 | $4.88 | $2.95 | $3.03 | $3.01 | $2.63 | $3.12 |
| Q2 '26 | $5.52 | $4.27 | $3.77 | $3.45 | $3.02 | $3.99 |
| Q3 '26 | $5.59 | $4.52 | $3.84 | $3.58 | $3.14 | $3.74 |
Strategic Recommendations for Q4 2026
Earlier forecasts predicting a calm, flat market for the remainder of 2026 have been challenged by prevailing cost pressures. With diesel hovering between $6.26 and $6.57 and non-fuel operating costs running 40% to 50% above historical levels, brokerages and shippers should take immediate precautions:
- Implement Live Margin Validations: In response to the 7.2% negative-margin run rate, brokerages should configure hard dispatch validation locks in their TMS to stop unprofitable bookings before dispatch.
- Update Dynamic Fuel Surcharge Formulas: Static fuel surcharge mechanisms cannot keep pace with $6.50+ retail diesel. Re-index contractual fuel tables to adjust bi-weekly.
- Prepare for Double-Digit Contract Bids: With tender rejections at 14%, carriers will seek 10% to 15% rate increases in late-fall contract RFPs to cover fuel and wage pressures.
- Audit Cross-Border Capacity Partners: Rigorous regulatory checks on foreign driver credentials necessitate closer relationships with vetted US-domiciled fleets and South Texas transload yards.