At first glance, September's freight report looks like one of the most stable months in recent memory. Van and Reefer rates nudged up by a mere cent, while Flatbed slipped by the same amount. But this unusual calm doesn't tell the whole story. Beneath the surface, a significant tightening of brokerage margins and a rebound in cross-border shipments suggest the market is in a delicate transition period. The excess capacity that has defined the market since 2023 is finally beginning to drain out, setting the stage for a potentially volatile end to the year as we head into a complex holiday season.
Let's dive into the data from our customer network and connect it with the broader supply chain trends shaping the end of 2025.
Your September Data Dashboard
This section provides an interactive look at the key rate changes from our September report. Hover over the charts for detailed figures and use the buttons to filter the trend data.
Rates: Month-Over-Month Comparison
Rates: Quarterly Trends (2023-2025)
The Big Squeeze: Why Margins Are Tightening
The most telling data point from September isn't the stability of the rates, but the significant drop in brokerage margins. Van margins fell from 14.1% to 13.2%, and Reefer margins saw a similar dip from 13.1% to 12.3%. This indicates that while the price paid by shippers held steady, the cost to secure a truck went up.
This is a classic sign of "capacity rationalization," a trend analysts have been observing all year. After the freight recession of 2023 and a soft 2024, many smaller carriers and owner-operators have exited the market. The result is a leaner, more disciplined carrier base. For shippers, this means:
- Less "cheap" capacity: The bottom-of-the-market rates that were available during the glut are disappearing.
- Increased competition for trucks: As demand ticks up, even slightly, the competition for available trucks becomes more intense, pushing up carrier pay.
- A rebalancing market: The power is slowly beginning to shift away from shippers and back towards a more neutral, carrier-favored environment.
Cross-Border Rebound & Inventory Jitters
Another key finding from our report was the sharp rebound in cross-border shipments, which jumped 14.6% in September after a steep 31% drop in August. This aligns with broader market intelligence suggesting that many companies let inventories run lean through the summer amid economic uncertainty.
With Q4 and the holiday season approaching, this rebound likely marks the beginning of cautious inventory replenishment. However, a "wait and see" attitude still prevails across the industry. Many businesses are hesitant to over-order due to:
- Cautious consumer spending: While spending remains resilient, it has slowed, and consumers are focused on value amid inflation and tariff concerns.
- Economic uncertainty: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and global trade volatility are making long-term planning difficult.
- Front-loading in early 2025: Some retailers imported goods earlier in the year to get ahead of potential tariffs, which could lead to a less dramatic Q4 peak.
What to Expect for the 2025 Holiday Season
Looking ahead, the now-tighter carrier market is set to collide with the demands of the holiday season. Analysts predict a complex and challenging peak season. While overall package volume may only see a modest 5% year-over-year increase, the pressure points have shifted.
The convergence of mobile commerce and consumer expectations for fast—even same-day—delivery creates a need for incredible supply chain agility. With less excess capacity in the system, any unexpected surge in demand could lead to sharp spikes in spot rates. Shippers who have not secured capacity with reliable partners may find themselves in a difficult position. The key to navigating the end of 2025 will be flexibility, strong communication, and strategic partnerships.