Q4 2025 Deep Dive: Analyzing the Shift in Freight Rate Stability

1. The Macro View: Stability vs. Recovery

For the better part of 24 months, the freight industry has been waiting for the "flip"—that elusive moment when capacity tightens dramatically, and rates spike. However, the data from November 2025 suggests that looking for a spike might be the wrong approach. Instead, we are witnessing something arguably more healthy: stability.

Most of 2025 provided disappointment for carriers looking for 2021-style margins. Rates remained depressed relative to operational costs. However, digesting the full calendar year of data reveals that the market has fundamentally shifted away from the freefall of previous years.

The primary indicator of this shift is the behavior of the Van spot market. In 2023 and 2024, rates frequently dipped below the previous year's lows. In 2025, that pattern broke. Van rates have met or exceeded their corresponding 2024 values in every single month of this year. This consistency is the first requirement for a true recovery cycle.

2. Equipment Analysis: Van, Flatbed, & Reefer

When we break down the data by equipment type, the "up and to the right" trajectory becomes visible, though it varies by sector. While niche markets like Step Deck and Conestoga remain volatile due to smaller datasets and project-based demand, the three major pillars of freight—Van, Flatbed, and Reefer—are showing alignment.

The Van Sector (Black Line)

Van freight is the most critical trend to watch as it represents the largest volume of movement. The stabilization here indicates that the overcapacity crisis is resolving. Carriers have exited the market, and freight volumes have normalized, creating a balanced ecosystem where rates can begin a natural climb.

Reefer Resilience (Blue Line)

Reefer rates have shown the most aggressive recovery. Q4 '25 is projecting a rate of $2.78, up significantly from the Q4 '24 average of $2.67. This isn't just seasonal holiday noise; it represents a structural tightening of temperature-controlled capacity.

3. Year-Over-Year Real Gains

It is crucial to distinguish between "seasonal jumps" and "real gains." A seasonal jump happens every November due to Thanksgiving. A real gain is when the baseline moves higher.

The graph below compares Q4 2024 directly against our projected Q4 2025 finish. In every major category, we are seeing positive monetary growth. This validates the sentiment that while the market isn't booming, it is certainly healthier than it was 12 months ago.

The Inflation Factor: While rates are up, operational costs (insurance, maintenance, equipment) have also risen. However, the rate of increase in Q4 2025 for Reefer and Flatbed appears to finally be outpacing the rate of operational inflation, allowing carriers to capture actual margin rather than just revenue turnover.

4. The Weather Factor & Organic Demand

One of the most surprising aspects of the November data set was the weather. Historically, severe weather in late Q4 acts as a catalyst for rate increases by disrupting capacity flow. November 2025, however, was markedly mild across the Midwest and Northeast.

Why this matters: In a weak market, mild weather usually leads to rate softening because trucks can move efficiently without delay. The fact that rates climbed despite the lack of weather disruptions is a bullish signal. It suggests that the rate increases are driven by organic freight demand and volume density, rather than external supply chain disruptions.

5. International Trade & Nearshoring

The "International" data segment—primarily comprised of cross-border freight moving from Mexico to interior U.S. points—continues to be a standout performer.

The Efficiency Metric

To understand the strength of this sector, we must look at the "Working Days" variable. October contained 23 working days. November contained only 19 due to the holiday schedule.

Despite having roughly 17% fewer days to move freight, November's total volume remained well above the yearly average. This implies a significant jump in volume per day.

Nearshoring is Now "Standard Operating Procedure"

This data confirms a long-term structural shift we have been tracking. The "Nearshoring" trend—moving manufacturing from overseas to Mexico—is no longer a buzzword; it is an operational reality.

We are seeing sustained volumes of automotive components, electronics, and appliances entering through Laredo, El Paso, and Otay Mesa. This volume is less susceptible to domestic U.S. consumer seasonality and provides a reliable baseline for carriers positioned in the southern region.

6. Outlook for Q1 2026

As we close the book on 2025, the freight market is in a position of "cautious strength." We do not anticipate a violent flip in capacity in Q1 2026, but we do expect the current floor to hold.

• Carriers: Should focus on contract negotiations now, using this stability data to push back against rate reductions.
• Shippers: Should recognize that the era of bottom-barrel spot rates is ending. Securing reliable capacity, especially for cross-border and reefer lanes, should be the priority over price shopping.

The recovery is real. It is slow, it is incremental, but it is supported by the data.