October was a strange month for the freight market. While falling consumer demand has been the narrative for most of the year, our October data shows that other forces are starting to take over. We're seeing a market split right down the middle, with industrial freight showing surprising strength while consumer goods freight... well, isn't.

So, what's really going on? A few key factors are colliding at once: a regulatory-driven capacity crunch, a massive surge in international freight, and the official start of the holiday season. Let's break down what we're seeing in the data.

The Big Story: Capacity is Getting Tighter

For weeks, we've been hearing chatter about stricter enforcement of laws aimed at removing non-English speaking drivers. This isn't just talk; it's having a real-world effect. We're seeing a noticeable tightening of available capacity as drivers are sidelined, shrinking the total driver pool.

This is happening at the *exact* same time the holiday season is kicking off. Despite a recent government shutdown and worries about consumer demand, seasonal loads *are* spiking. The problem is, this new demand is meeting a smaller-than-expected supply of trucks and drivers. This combination is putting upward pressure on rates, even if consumer demand itself isn't booming.

The Flatbed Anomaly: A 3.7% Spike

Here's where the data gets interesting. It's highly unusual for flatbed rates to spike in October, a month when industrial and construction freight typically cools off. But our data shows flatbed rates jumped 10 cents per mile, a 3.7% increase from September. Conestoga trailers saw a similar 3.1% jump.

This tells us the story isn't about demand. This is a supply-side squeeze. The capacity crunch from driver enforcement seems to be hitting the flatbed sector hard, and with steady industrial demand, rates had nowhere to go but up. This is the highest monthly flatbed rate we've seen since April.

Van & Reefer: The Full Story Isn't in the Rate

At first glance, the van and reefer markets look boring. Van rates were up a mere 0.9% ($2.29/mile), and reefer was up just 1.2% ($2.57/mile). Stagnant, right? Not exactly.

The hidden story here is length of haul (LOH), which continues to increase for both van and reefer freight. This means that while the *per-mile rate* isn't rising, carriers are having to drive further to pick up and deliver loads. This increase in LOH can partially explain why rates aren't rising further—it spreads the revenue thinner over more miles, putting a quiet squeeze on carrier profitability.

The Other Tidal Wave: International Shipments

Perhaps the biggest leading indicator we're seeing is at the ports. After a long period of uncertainty, tariffs appear to have stabilized, and foreign freight is *flooding* back into the U.S.

Our data shows international shipments hitting a high-water mark of 1,130 loads, a staggering 94.8% increase from September. This freight, primarily from Mexico, isn't hitting the spot market yet. It's restocking Container Freight Stations (CFS) as it clears customs. But make no mistake: this is a harbinger of much higher volumes to come.

The immediate impact? It's choking equipment availability for port-to-warehouse drayage. This creates a bottleneck *before* the freight even gets inland, and it's a strong signal that we're in for a very busy Q4.

What This Means for the Holiday Rush

Heading into the rest of Q4, we're looking at a pressure-cooker situation:

  • Driver capacity is shrinking due to regulatory enforcement.
  • Port capacity is being tested by a massive, sudden surge of imports.
  • Holiday demand is adding loads to this already-strained system.

Even if overall consumer demand remains soft, these major supply-side constraints are pointing toward a volatile and tight end to the year. For shippers, this likely means finding capacity will be more challenging and more expensive as we close out 2025.