While we aren't seeing a dramatic market flip just yet, the data suggests the bleeding has stopped. November brought a welcome change of pace: stability. Rates are no longer falling, and in key sectors, we are seeing a consistent—if modest—upward tick.
Most of 2025 felt like a waiting game with rates remaining depressed. However, when digesting the full calendar year, the data offers some cautious optimism. We haven't returned to peak levels, but the market floor seems to have solidified as we close out Q4.
Holding steady, meeting or slightly exceeding 2024 values month-over-month.
Showing resilience with modest monetary gains compared to one year ago.
Nearshoring continues to provide a consistent volume baseline for carriers.
The graph below illustrates the long-term effort toward recovery. It’s not a vertical climb, but rather a slow, steady "up and to the right" trajectory. While niche markets like step deck remain volatile, the major categories—Van and Reefer—are finding their footing.
Note: Van freight (black line) shows a crucial leveling off and slight rise, a key indicator that stability is returning to the market.
*Q4 '25 projections based on October/November averages.
We often hear anecdotal predictions about the market flipping, but the numbers tell a more grounded story. We aren't seeing a massive spike, but we are seeing positive movement.
Reefer rates continued to climb as expected with the Thanksgiving holiday. What is notable is that the decline following the holiday wasn't as sharp as in previous years. Average loads per day tracked higher than in October, suggesting organic market strength is supporting the seasonal push.
November represented another solid month for international shipments. While the shorter working month (19 days) impacts total output, the daily volume remains robust. This sector continues to outperform the general market due to structural changes rather than just seasonal ones.
The "Nearshoring" Baseline: The data confirms a long-term shift. As manufacturers diversify supply chains ("Nearshoring"), Mexico has solidified its position as a primary trade partner.
This flow of automotive parts and electronics entering through Laredo and El Paso is providing a "new normal" baseline for North American freight. It’s not a boom, but it is reliable volume that helps stabilize the broader network.
Cross-border volume index showing sustained, steady demand.
