Brokers Complain About Rates as Spot Market Enters Historic Capacity Squeeze
May 2026 data shows freight brokers taking losses on 11% of loads as Y-O-Y rate increases establish a structural 30% floor.
Key Findings & Executive Summary
- Broker Squeeze: Rapidly rising capacity costs are outpacing shipper budgets; brokers are currently taking a loss on 11% of all brokered loads, and 13% of reefer loads.
- A 30% Floor: Year-over-year rate comparisons show a baseline increase of 30% across almost all equipment types, with Van rates officially crossing the $3.00/mile threshold.
- Step Deck Soars: Driven by infrastructure spending and cross-border pipeline activity, Step Deck rates jumped 8.9% month-over-month and an astonishing 62.1% year-over-year.
- International Rebound: Cross-border transactions jumped 69.2% from April to May, absorbing massive amounts of domestic capacity as summer freight cycles begin.
1. The Margin Squeeze: Brokers Suffer Heavy Losses
Shippers know higher rates are coming, but they are doing their best to force competition between brokers in order to artificially suppress pricing. The reality of the market, however, is heavily favoring carriers. Brokers are finding it increasingly difficult to source trucks, to the point that one in every nine loads (11%) represents a financial loss for the broker.
The pain is exceptionally acute in the temperature-controlled sector, where 13% of all Reefer loads lost money in May. Van and Reefer margins slipped even lower in May as brokers desperately attempted to hold market share. Compounding the margin pressure is a rapid run-up in diesel fuel, where carrier-assessed surcharges are lagging behind the physical pump price by about ten days.
Brokers handling general, non-urgent commodities (like bottled water) are struggling the most. Conversely, specialized brokers are finding incredible upside; LTL margins are thriving, averaging an impressive 39%, while Hot Shot freight rates routinely equal or exceed full truckload pricing.
2. Van & Reefer: North of $3.00/Mile
May continued the strong momentum generated in April. Not that long ago, Van rates were languishing in the low $2.00 to $2.30 range; today, the national average is north of $3.00/mile ($3.02, up 6.0% M-O-M). Reefer rates also saw aggressive summer-season pressure, rising 8.3% to $3.51/mile.
While the national averages are incredibly strong, geography dictates the reality. Low rates still exist, but they are almost exclusively originating from backhaul states like Colorado, Florida, and Wyoming, or for trucks attempting to leave the Northeast. Conversely, intra-Northeast regional rates remain some of the highest in the country.
3. Flatbed & Infrastructure Demand
Flatbed rates rose 3.0% overall, but the highest specific demand came for Step Decks and Conestoga trailers. Step Decks jumped a sharp 8.9% month-over-month to hit $4.28/mile, while Conestogas surged 14.9% to $4.16/mile.
Just as in April, there is no evidence of increased domestic oil drilling per the Baker-Hughes report. However, the flatbed boom is being fueled heavily by structural and geopolitical shifts: military spending to move material and supplies remains high, and private sector spending on pipelines and LNG terminals is ongoing. Additionally, while U.S. drilling is flat, Baker-Hughes revealed an increase in new wells in Canada (likely Alberta), which directly feeds pipeline construction and infrastructure hauling crossing into the U.S.
4. Year-Over-Year Rate Benchmarks
Last month, market commentary highlighted that Y-O-Y rates were hovering close to a 30% increase. In May, that 30% mark became the definitive floor. Van is up 32.5%, Reefer is up 42.7%, and Step Deck is up an astonishing 62.1% compared to May 2025. This confirms that the freight market is no longer in a "recovery" phase—it is in a full-blown capacity-constrained bull cycle.
5. International Volume Rebound
International shipping is a massive part of the capacity story. Following a brief lull, cross-border transactions jumped 69.2% from April to May, logging 768 shipments.
Many of these shipments originate from Mexico, and once this freight clears Customs, it acts as a vacuum, soaking up domestic transportation capacity. While the year-to-date average for international shipments still slightly trails 2025, analysts expect these numbers to rise drastically through the summer months, putting even more pressure on southern border freight networks.
6. Fuel, Economy, and Q3 2026 Outlook
Looking ahead, it appears spot rates will remain unchecked. Rising consumer and industrial demand is colliding directly with highly insufficient supply.
Fuel remains the ultimate wildcard. While prices have temporarily stabilized, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is running critically low, and the Straits of Hormuz remain closed. Oil majors remain highly reluctant to resume drilling, remembering recent eras where per-barrel pricing sat below $65, making new investment risky.