Flatbed Rates Accelerate to New Highs Amidst $5.40 Fuel Shock

1. The Spring Flatbed & Step Deck Boom

March marks the traditional start of the spring construction season, but the level of rate increases we are witnessing in the flatbed sector surpasses prior years by a wide margin. The standout data point is Step Deck, which skyrocketed 21.8% from February to an average of $3.41 per mile.

Step Deck rising above standard flatbed rates ($3.20, a 7.0% increase) indicates a definitive change in the mix of cargoes. The flatbed industry serves as the primary means of transport for heavy machinery and drilling components. Transport Pro data also recorded a significant increase in the number of overweight or over-dimensional moves in March.

2. Van and Reefer: Plateauing at the Peak

March trends are largely a continuation of the higher pricing established in January and February for enclosed moves. Van rates decreased slightly (-1.1% to $2.65), while Reefer rates were perfectly flat at $3.04.

However, underlying the stable Van rates is a behavioral shift: the average length of haul decreased from 739 miles in February to 714 miles in March. This contraction indicates increased carrier sensitivity to rising fuel prices, with longer-haul consumer goods potentially shifting to rail intermodal to mitigate diesel costs.

3. Fuel Crisis: $5.40 Diesel & Global Turmoil

The macroeconomic environment completely dominates the freight narrative heading into Q2. As measured by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on March 30, diesel fuel prices hit a staggering $5.40/gallon as a national average. This represents an increase of $1.81/gallon over one year prior.

The closing of the Straits of Hormuz is impacting worldwide manufacturing and ocean transportation, directly bleeding into domestic fuel supplies. For carriers with robust fuel surcharges, this represents a recovery of between 25 and 30 cents per mile. However, smaller spot market carriers cannot completely recover this fuel increase, which will inevitably force capacity out of the market.

4. Year-Over-Year Rate Benchmarks

The year-over-year increases are not just double digits; in some cases, the YOY increase exceeds 30%. Most categories hit their high for the preceding 36 months. While Van and Reefer rates started really moving up in December 2025, now all forms of flatbed have caught up to—or surpassed—van pricing velocity.

5. Brokerage Margin Recovery

After months of tightening, brokers saw slight relief in March. Van margins moved higher to 13.3% (up from 12.6% in February), and Reefer margins climbed to 11.6%. Flatbed and Step Deck broker margins held steady at 15.9% and 12.7% respectively.

Shippers fought hard to hold rates in Q1, but it has now become widely accepted that trucking rates will rise significantly in both the spot and contract realms. There should be further opportunity for brokers to regain margin in 2026, though tighter capacity will constrain a full return to historic highs.

6. International Volume Update

The cross-border counts remain volatile. After February's massive spike, March saw a sharp 42.5% decrease, logging 676 shipments. Despite the drop, this count remains close to the 2025 annual average of 725 shipments. Most of this volume represents active trade between the U.S. and Mexico.

7. Q2 2026 Economic Outlook

Inflation is feared in most business sectors. Higher transportation costs are a near certainty for the next two quarters of 2026. Overall, the U.S. economy continues to perform well, but there is real fear that higher consumer prices—compounded by the rising costs of transport and manufacturing worldwide—will begin to chip away at demand.

Even higher-income consumers may scale back as investments are pressured by the possibility of higher interest rates. However, the domestic oil sector should perform exceptionally well as it pivots to replace Middle Eastern supply, holding the industrial economy together throughout 2026.