January 2026 Freight Market Report: Spot Rates & Broker Insights

By Transport Pro Analytics Team • February 2, 2026

Executive Summary: The "Squeeze" Is Back

Market Dynamic

Spot rates are challenging contract ceilings. Reefer (+6¢) and Flatbed (+2.5%) led gains in January.

Broker Risk

Extreme margin pressure. 8.9% of loads were underwater; costs exceeded shipper pay per transaction.

External Validation

U.S. Bank Index confirms: Spend rose +4.6% (Q4) while shipments stayed flat. Capacity is tightening.

Spot Market Rate Trends

Month-Over-Month Comparison (Dec '25 vs. Jan '26)

Insight: While RGN specialized freight cooled, core modes like Van and Reefer saw increases. Conestoga saw a significant outlier jump to $3.23.

National Context: Spend vs. Shipments

Benchmarking against U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index (Q4 2025)

Spend Index (Q4 '25)

191.9 ▲ 4.6%

Shipment Index (Q4 '25)

76.1 ▲ 1.5%

National data proves pricing power has shifted. Spend is hitting 2-year highs despite stagnant demand, forcing brokers to pay more for existing capacity.

Perspective

Key Risk Indicators

Losing Loads 8.9%

Break-even Loads 4.9%

Low Paying Loads (<$2.00) 15.4%

Cross-Border Alert

Transport Pro reports a plunge in cross-border moves, contrasted by steady domestic Midwest manufacturing.