The start of 2026 has brought a complex set of challenges for freight brokers and a cautiously optimistic outlook for asset carriers. As we navigate the "Jan-gap" before the Spring rebid season, proprietary data from Transport Pro reveals a spot market that is stubbornly challenging contract rates, while national indices from U.S. Bank suggest a structural shift in capacity and spend.
For many brokers, the beginning of the year is a waiting game for new customer contract negotiations. However, the Transport Pro January report shows that "waiting" is becoming expensive. An alarming 8.9% of transactions recorded in January showed acquisition costs for a truck that exceeded what the shipper paid.
This "squeeze" is particularly evident in specialized modes. While dry van rates grew marginally, the underlying cost of securing reliable capacity in the spot market is now frequently piercing the ceiling of older contract agreements.
While rates generally held at or above December levels, the market remains bifurcated. 15.4% of carrier spot market payments were still measured below the critical $2.00/mile threshold, with 8.7% falling even lower at $1.80/mile.
According to our equipment-level breakdown, Reefer rates rose another six cents per mile, while standard Van rates edged up by two cents. However, the massive jump in Conestoga rates ($3.23) indicates a localized capacity crunch for flatbed-adjacent specialized freight.
Cross-referencing our transactional data with the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index™ (Q4 2025), we see a broader national trend: industry capacity is continuing to contract. Shipper spending reached its highest point since early 2024, despite shipment volumes showing only a modest 1.5% quarterly increase.
| Metric (U.S. Bank Q4 '25) | Index Value | Quarterly Change | Yearly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spend Index | 191.9 | +4.6% | +5.2% |
| Shipment Index | 76.1 | +1.5% | -4.9% |
The U.S. Bank data suggested that freight rates rose primarily because the spending index rose significantly more than the shipments metric. This imbalance indicates that shippers are competing for a shrinking pool of active trucks.
One of the most striking findings in the January data is the plunge in cross-border moves. Data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) confirms that while inbound trucks destined for the Midwest remain a factor, there has been a noticeable cooling in international freight velocity compared to the Q3 2025 peak.
The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book noted steady manufacturing activity in the Chicago and Richmond districts. This aligns perfectly with Transport Pro's observation of strong domestic flatbed demand and deliver-to-factory logistics in Michigan and Ohio. However, the Beige Book also highlighted that "shippers in the Southeast and Northeast reported slower port-related volumes," explaining the overall shipment volume stagnation.
As we move toward March, the "firming of rates" seen in the MoM comparison suggests a new floor has been established. For brokers, the priority must be accurate spot-market forecasting to avoid the underwater transactions that plagued January. For carriers, the opportunity lies in specialized equipment where the rate gains are most aggressive.
