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Rate Recovery Predictions Proven Real: December Spot Rates Jump 9.5%

A pivotal shift in the freight market as Van and Reefer rates surge, tightening capacity heading into 2026.

By Transport Pro Analytics Team • January 8, 2026 • 10 Min Read

Key Findings & Executive Summary

  • The Jump is Here: Prior indicators were accurate. Van and Reefer spot rates both jumped 9.5% in December, the most significant Month-Over-Month increase in over three years.
  • Spot vs. Contract Flip: Shippers successfully pushed for lower contract rates throughout 2025; consequently, many lanes now have higher spot rates than contract rates.
  • Margin Squeeze: As carrier rates rose, broker margins tightened to historic lows (12.1% for Van, 10.4% for Reefer), signaling a transfer of pricing power back to asset-based carriers.
  • International Boom: December cross-border shipments finished 20% above the annual average, cementing nearshoring as a dominant volume driver.

1. The December Rate Surge

After months of "cautious optimism," the market made a definitive move in December. Van and Reefer spot market rates both experienced a 9.5% month-over-month increase. This is not a subtle fluctuation; it is a sharp correction driven by higher organic demand colliding with reduced capacity.

While we typically expect a holiday surge in December, this year’s data indicates something more structural. The spot market had been flat for most of 2025. This sudden rebound suggests we have passed a threshold where capacity is no longer abundant enough to absorb seasonal spikes without significant price increases.

"The most significant jump in over three years results from higher demand combined with less capacity. The recovery is no longer a prediction—it is active."

Not Across-the-Board... Yet. It is important to note that this is a "mixed" recovery. We are seeing extremely high rates on specific head-haul lanes combined with ongoing softness in others. However, the aggregate data shows a clear upward trend across all major equipment types.

Month-Over-Month Rate Growth (Nov '25 vs Dec '25)
A sharp departure from the flat trends of Q3 2025

2. Year-Over-Year Benchmarks

The question on everyone's mind: Is this just a Christmas surge? While seasonality plays a role, the Year-Over-Year (Y-O-Y) comparisons suggest a new floor has been established.

Comparing December 2024 to December 2025 reveals massive gains. Reefer rates are up 15.6% and Van rates are up 11.0%. Even Flatbed, which typically slows in winter, posted a 6.0% gain. These double-digit increases confirm that 2025 ended on a fundamentally different trajectory than it began.

Year-Over-Year Rate Comparison (Dec '24 vs Dec '25)

3. The Brokerage Margin Squeeze

As rates rise, the pressure shifts to intermediaries. December provided a stark reality check for freight brokerages. As carrier pay increased rapidly, brokers struggled to pass those full costs onto shippers immediately, resulting in compressed margins.

Margins for Van equipment tightened to 12.1%, and Reefer margins plummeted to 10.4%—historic lows for the last decade.

  • The Implication: It is difficult to force margins any lower. This "floor" in broker margins means that any further rate increases from carriers in Q1 2026 will likely be passed directly to shippers as price increases.
  • The Exception: Flatbed and specialized (RGN) margins remained healthier (around 16-21%), indicating less volatility in those project-based sectors.

5. International & Cross-Border Volume

The international sector (predominantly Mexico-U.S. cross-border freight) ended the year with remarkable strength. December shipments came in 20% over the annual average and 10.3% higher than November.

Typically, December sees a slowdown in manufacturing freight. The fact that volumes increased indicates that nearshoring production lines are running at full capacity and supply chains are pushing hard to move inventory before year-end. This sector remains a bright spot for volume consistency.

December volume surged to 871 on the index, outpacing the 12-month average of 711.

6. 2026 Outlook: A New Pricing Reality

The data from December serves as a warning shot for 2026. The balance of power has shifted.

For Brokers

The strategy of shippers relying on the spot market for savings is now a liability. Shippers will expect brokers to re-quote lanes in January to recover their compressed margins, and to prevent budget overruns on spot freight.

For Carriers

The market is finally moving in your favor. However, diesel fuel remains a "wild card." Lower fuel prices have kept some marginal operators in business, preventing an even tighter capacity crunch. Expect Q1 to be a battleground for contract renegotiations as you leverage this new spot market data.