Spot Rates Climb to All-Time Highs Amidst Widespread Capacity Bleed

1. Van & Reefer: The Sharp Rise and the Great Divide

After plateauing slightly in March, both Van and Reefer pricing rose another twenty cents per mile in April. Van hit an average of $2.85 (up 7.5% M-O-M), while Reefer climbed to $3.24 (up 6.6%). However, the overarching average masks intense lane-level volatility.

A survey of pricing shows an extreme spread between carriers able to capture fuel increases and those struggling at the bottom of the market. Despite record average rates, many lanes remain depressed at or below $1.80/mile. Backhaul markets are particularly punitive, with $1.30/mile being common out of Colorado, Florida, and the Northeast Region.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, many rates now routinely exceed $4.00/mile—especially on freight with high urgency. Strikingly, a surprising amount of freight consisting of partial truckload volumes is now moving at or above full truckload rates. This suggests an economy driven by rapid change and operating with little regard to cost containment.

2. Flatbed Growth Powered by Energy Infrastructure

Flatbed rates continue to lead the parade, but interestingly, there is little to no evidence of increased oil drilling in the U.S. (the Baker-Hughes rig count remains flat). Instead, the growth is infrastructural.

Ongoing construction of pipelines, LNG ports, and other oil-related megaprojects continues at a frantic pace. As Europe has increasingly relied on the U.S. for oil, gas, and LNG imports following geopolitical disruptions, the addition of infrastructure to support those exports appears to be fast-tracked under a favorable Federal administration. This dynamic pushed standard Flatbed up 13.1% to $3.62, while Step Deck rose 15.2% to $3.93.

3. Fuel Stabilization vs. Capacity Bleed

The price of diesel fuel brought intense whiplash in April. Prices spiked to a high of $5.60/gallon on April 13th before settling back to $5.35/gallon by April 27th.

While the temporary stabilization is welcome, the overarching damage is done. The immense pressure that $5.00+ fuel places on undercapitalized carriers continues to tighten the spot market. Capacity continues to bleed from the market, which will persistently prop up rates until a long-term resolution regarding global oil supply is reached.

4. Year-Over-Year Rate Benchmarks

For the second straight month, virtually every equipment category has exceeded a 20% Y-O-Y increase. The April comparisons are even more stark: Van, Reefer, and standard Flatbed are all hovering around a 30% jump compared to April 2025. Specialty flatbed shows even more extreme change (Step Deck is up an astonishing 51.7%), as favorable spring weather has accelerated schedules for large-scale construction projects.

5. Brokerage Margins Squeezed

Van and Reefer margins were mixed in April. Van margins improved slightly to 13.7% (up from 13.3% in March), providing a bright spot. However, Reefer margins dropped back to 10.9%, and Flatbed margins tightened from 15.9% to 15.6%. Step Deck margins took the hardest hit, falling to single digits (9.9%) as carriers commanded absolute pricing power.

The ongoing bleed of capacity from the spot freight market will continue to pressure intermediary margins heading into the summer.

6. International Volume & Tariff Rulings

April registered another surprisingly soft month for cross-border transactions, dropping 32.8% from March to just 454 recorded shipments. However, industry analysts expect a turnaround: a recent Supreme Court decision striking down most U.S.-imposed tariffs should clear the regulatory backlog and allow trade activity to pick up significantly in Q3.

7. Q2 2026 Economic Outlook

The macro outlook remains resolute: higher transportation costs are a near certainty for the remainder of 2026. While diesel fuel prices moderated late in April as the Iran War was put on pause, supply chain experts warn that the last of the Middle Eastern oil has likely arrived at U.S. ports in meaningful volumes until the Straits of Hormuz are fully stabilized and reopened.

Despite global supply chain fractures, the U.S. economy continues to grow. First-quarter GDP was pegged around a healthy 3.0%, and the stock market has remained remarkably resilient throughout the first four months of 2026. While higher prices are beginning to hurt demand in some niche sectors, the broader industrial and consumer markets are pushing forward, and shippers are increasingly resigned to paying higher rates.